Quote:
Originally Posted by slotdirt
It's not like the Preakness is a nothing race or something. There seem to have been at least a few years in recent years where the Preakness winner was considered a stronger stallion prospect than the Derby victory. 2001 and 2005 come immediately to mind.
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In a lot of instances, the Preakness tends to be the more "honest" or "formful" race in the long run. The road to the Derby is such a clusterfucl< that its almost as if the race itself is an anti-climax and tends to be run in a haphazard fashion (breakneck pace, auxiliary post positions, all sorts of traffic woes going on, etc.). The Belmont, at 12f, is an anomaly that also really has no bearing on the rest of the year in most cases.
For these reasons it's also a race to catch a good horse at an overlaid price. How many beaten Derby favorites have bounced back at Pimlico in recent times? Snow Chief, Prairie Bayou, Point Given, Afleet Alex, Timber Country, Hansel. Well-meant Derby horses like Louis Quatorze, Pine Bluff, Tabasco Cat. Certainly, despite the trouble trips from each, the '89 Easy Goer-Sunday Silence Preakness was the more accurate result of that Triple Crown series.
This year, and I realize its much too early to make any substantial predictions, I'm already on the lookout for expected Derby dud Sidney's Candy to be more of a threat at Pimlico than at Churchill.