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Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag
Bellamy Road's performance was better than Esky's and he lost. I'm very concerned about the 1:13 and 3 yesterday. The Derby pace will be 1:11 and 3 at the slowest. Either set by Rule, Conveyance, Sydney or American Lion. If Esky uses any of his speed to stay within 5 lenghts he won't have the the finishing touch he has had the last 2 races. Could still win very easily. But if they opt to lay 10 lengths back of that pace. I'm not so sure. Plus we still have post positions.
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So if he stays close to the pace, he'll be in trouble, and if he lays off the pace, he'll be in trouble. Why even enter? And unlike Eskendereya, Bellamy Road showed little to no ability to rate in his prior races, plus he got hurt in the Derby. Different scenarios.
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Originally Posted by dalakhani
No doubt about it. Anything can happen and you can find a good price on a horse with a shot. At the same time, is there any single horse out there that you have seen so far with a reasonable shot to beat him? If so, Please name him.
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This is my question as well. It's easy to say "they all get beat" and they do, but I'm still waiting for someone to tell me which horse is close to him.