[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

I think freshness is very important in the BC Mile, and generally those QEII winners you mention have run there at the end of a busy European season. In George's favour is the fact that he has run just four times, with an extended mid-summer break. This will be just his third outing off the back of that break.
Araafa beat George in the Irish 2,000 where they encountered heavy ground and, yes, if those conditions came up at CD (unlikely in the extreme) I'd consider playing Araafa. But George has beaten that horse twice, both times in the style of an exceptional miler. There are questions over his temperament, although I think they're receding as the season goes on, luck in running always plays a huge part around the frying pan-tight US courses and 2/1 (the best price on offer, as short as 5/4) doesn't offer value. However, he has put up the 2 best miling performances in the world this year, and, whichever way you look at it is by some way the most likely winner of the race.
Put simply it's illogical to say that Araafa has a better chance in the BCM just because he didn't win at Ascot, when the winner beat him senseless.

U may say it's illogical but I don't know about that. I mean, facts are facts and so far, the fact is that eight times the QE II winner has come over and eight times they've been soundly defeated. By contrast, seven times the QE II runner-up has come over and they have three wins and a third. This kind of record sounds eerily similar to that of the Arc. No winner of that race has ever come over and won the BC Turf but six Arc losers have won the race. Are either of these things coincidences? Maybe. Maybe not. I think the most compelling reason for why George Washington can be the one to break the trend is the one u gave about him not having had a long and tiring season. It's my opinion that u have to be in top shape to handle a course and race like Ascot's QE II and asking a horse to reproduce such an effort so soon in today's game is perhaps asking too much. I also think that because of the course layout at Ascot, the winners of this race are usually horses that are probably better suited to 9-10f in American races. Notice the names of Giant's Causeway (2nd by a neck in BC Classic) and Falbrav (3rd by a head in BC Turf) as well as Rakti, Starcraft, and Dubai Millennium. I think all of those horses were better at longer distances than at 8f. I think that the mile at Ascot is more of a test of stamina than it is here where speed is king.