I think freshness is very important in the BC Mile, and generally those QEII winners you mention have run there at the end of a busy European season. In George's favour is the fact that he has run just four times, with an extended mid-summer break. This will be just his third outing off the back of that break.
Araafa beat George in the Irish 2,000 where they encountered heavy ground and, yes, if those conditions came up at CD (unlikely in the extreme) I'd consider playing Araafa. But George has beaten that horse twice, both times in the style of an exceptional miler. There are questions over his temperament, although I think they're receding as the season goes on, luck in running always plays a huge part around the frying pan-tight US courses and 2/1 (the best price on offer, as short as 5/4) doesn't offer value. However, he has put up the 2 best miling performances in the world this year, and, whichever way you look at it is by some way the most likely winner of the race.
Put simply it's illogical to say that Araafa has a better chance in the BCM just because he didn't win at Ascot, when the winner beat him senseless.
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