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Originally Posted by freddymo
So what's the big deal that Rachel was 4 or 5 lengths slower then she will be 4 weeks? She ran ok, wasn't 100% fit, and needs some more work to get back to herself. Running a 100 fig off the bench and being at 90% is far from worrisome? I also think that she could have won yesterday if Borel would have sent her earlier...so if she was 1length faster all would be well in horsey land?
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Zenyatta is probably more Ironhead Heyward than Barry Sanders .. but yeah, Smith looked vintage Ramon Dominguez-esque with that ride.
I would be a lot more critical of Smith's ride ... if only I hadn't seen Dominguez win like hundreds of Delaware races on short priced horses just like that. Almost never getting stopped and weaving to victory while winning handily instead of just looping around.
I'll tell you this much ... let's say Zardana never ran in New Orleans. What happens?
1.) Rachel Alexandra wins by 12 lengths under a lazy hand ride from Borel.
2.) The final time comes back less than stellar. She gets the same 100 Beyer but a lot of people foolishly assume she would have run a lot faster "if asked" She runs hard to the wire regardless of urging.
3.) Everyone would be falling over themselves to mock that pathetic horse who finished 2nd to Zenyatta. The horse had been 4th or worse in like 10 of her last 11 races.
4.) The line wouldn't be Zenyatta (-170) VS RA (+150) .. RA would certainly be at least a slight favorite.
5.) DrugS would become alarmingly unopinionated on this match-up. Probably just mumbling up something about how good a trainer Shirreffs is when pointing...and how cool the race will be to watch.
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Damn good analysis from you both. Quoted for truth.
I thought the NO Ladies figure was a bit high but it actually does fit well when considering the quality of the allowance field and what Rachel had done at FG in the past. Also, clearly Zardana is a very good dirt filly- better than any of us had predicted (except for perhaps Drugs who gave her a 95 "Brasil Figura".)