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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
That's a downright horrible figure .. but I love it when we're off by that much.
Basically ... if you believe that Zenyatta ran a 102 today .. you believe that every single horse she beat ran by far the best race of their lives. You also have to believe that soundly beaten horses (behind a slow pace no less) in the San Felipe surged to career best numbers.
If Zenyatta gets a 102 ...
* 2nd place Dance to My Tune runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths in career start #30. She gets a 100
* 3rd place Floating Heart runs the best race of her life by 5 full lengths.
* 4th place Striking Dancer runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths. And 7 full lengths better than her 2nd best prior race.
* 5th place Pretty Unusual runs the best race of her life by 4 full lengths.
* 6th place Made For Magic - in career start #30 - runs the best race of her life
* 7th place Pretty Kathrine - while only managing to beat a single horse - ran the best race of her life by 4.5 lengths.
* 8th and last place finisher Gripsholm Castle - despite taking up sharply - runs the same figure while last at 9/1 odds today that she did while a dream trip 2nd at 18/1 odds in the Grade 2 La Canada last time out.
I think the figure maker did a wonderful job of not showing an Anti West Coast Bias or anti synthetic bias. It's very important to not make hopelessly stupid people think you might be biased in some way.
I just feel sorry for any bettors who will take the figures of the horses Zenyatta beat at face value when these horses run back. They'll all be "dropping in class" out of a "Grade 1" with "big figures" .. nice collection of future bet againsts.
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Kindly requesting permission to post this elsewhere if it comes up?