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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Rup, a recap ... the horse sold for 160K in a really tough 2yo sales market last year. His sire stands for just $7,500 - the horse was just a 42K yearling in a far more seller friendly market.
It's not like this is some lowly underdog Laurel based horse like Magic Weisner who we can all root for.
His maiden win came the same day as Tempted To Tapit's...a far less sexy horse (18K yearling who had lost 3 straight maiden races - 2 at Philly and 1 at Delaware)
You started a thread about the slow and sexy prospect saying he could be an interesting one to watch on the Derby Trail...
And when BTW responded that "Tempted To Tapit would beat him by a city block and no one is getting revved up about him" .... you actually responded by saying "it's how they do it, not how fast they run. I don't pay attention to speed figures"
You deserve some needling - not so much for starting a thread about a horse that beat a bad field and still hasn't yet proven he's even good enough to beat Hotep... but for using silly bologna talk on us that should be saved for fooling rich, naive, owners into thinking that its some kind of big advantage that you don't have a good understanding of figures.
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I think speed figures are one small piece of the puzzle, no more, no less. What percentage of races are won by the horse who has run the highest speed figure? I bet it's a relatively small percent. It's probably around 30% or less.
Don't get me wrong. Even though I think speed figures are only one piece of the puzzle, I still believe that if a person had access to accurate speed figures and this person was one of the only people using speed figures, this person would have a big edge. But in this day and age, everyone has access to speed figures. Horses with the highest speed figures are usually over-bet. In a game with 16% vig, I think it's pretty tough to get an edge focusing on the same info as everyone else.