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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You can't offer caveats in this argument...either you think the Tin Man will beat Cacique in the BC Turf or you don't ( at least in this particular argument ). Surely you can wait until the pps are drawn and give your opinion but you basically can't be excused from being wrong should a certain scenerio develop...save perhaps the rider falling off. At least considering the opinions you shared earlier in this thread.
There's no shame in being wrong, and I'm the weasel that has very little opinion on the subject because I am not a fan of either horse, though I would gladly take even money that Cacique finishes ahead of the Tin Man in the BC. Like you, I feel the Tin Man will lose steam late in the race after at least trying to win a race he can't win, while the unmighty Cacique will suck up for some irrelevent piece while doing next to no running.
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I won't necessarily make an excuse if TTM loses to Cacique. I usually don't have an excuse when a horse I bet loses. Once in a while there may be a legitimate excuse but not very often, maybe 10% of the time or so.
When I bet a speed horse and they get passed and run 4th or 5th, it is very rare that I will say that they would have won the race if the winner wasn't in the race. Here is a situation where I may say that my horse who ran 3rd would have won the race if the winner was not in the race. Let's suppose that I bet a 2 year old first-timer in a sprint race and he goes head and head in :21 3/5 and they have a 5 length lead on the rest of the field. So he is hooked with some monster going head and head and the monster puts him away and draws off to win the race by 5 lengths. My horse fades to 3rd about 50 yards before the wire and gets beat for 2nd by less than a length and my horse's stride looked good. He was on his right lead and was moving well. In a case like that, where my horse would have had a 3 length lead under a tight hold, if the monster wasn't in the race, I may say that my horse would have probably won the race if the winner wasn't in there. I wouldn't automatically say this. It would depend on how my horse was moving coming down the stretch, etc. If he was on his left lead and was taking short strides, I probably wouldn't say that he would have won if the winner wasn't in there. There are no set rules. I watch every race on a case by case basis.