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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
The number may be a little random but in the case of a speed horse like The Tin Man he does rate to get collared and passed by the likely better Europeans and thus the scenerio you proposed sort of absolves both the horse and you for a poor performance or opinion when and if the Tin Man fails.
I understand you feel that in the unlikely event that Cacique and the Tin Man hook up for all the money that the Tin Man will prevail but the simple fact is that such a scenerio is extremely remote and thus you are proposing you can only be wrong in a fairly illogical variation.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with your logic that the Tin Man will get disheartened and fall apart when engulfed by the real talent in the BC Turf, as that is a situation that happens quite often. The hardest exacta to get home involves a longshot second to a very tough and strong favorite when the longshot also happens to be a speed and you know he will be confronted by the favorite early in the running. Such a horse is likely to be disheartened from attempting to fight off the favorite and losing the battle. However, the caveat you offered, in light of the situation, tilts the scale of the argument dramatically in your favor.
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I didn't say that I think it is likely to happen. I said that it is possible. Horses usually do not fall apart when they get passed. They usually keep trying. When they do get discouraged, it usually only costs them a length or so. It's not as if it usually costs them 5 lengths. The earlier a horse gets passed, the more it will hurt him. If he gets blown by at the 3/8 pole, it's going to cost him more than if get passed at the 1/8th pole. But the truth of the matter is if a horse gets blown by at the 3/8 pole, I doubt he was going to do much any way. The only exception would be if there was some absolute super-horse that blows by your horse at the 3/8 pole. That happens once in a while but not very often.