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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I don't know where you came up with that number. If I bet a horse that is the 2nd best horse in the race, they usually run 2nd. Once in a while, they may fade to 3rd or 4th because they get passed and get discouraged, but that probably only happens 10-20% of the time at the most.
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The number may be a little random but in the case of a speed horse like The Tin Man he does rate to get collared and passed by the likely better Europeans and thus the scenerio you proposed sort of absolves both the horse and you for a poor performance or opinion when and if the Tin Man fails.
I understand you feel that in the unlikely event that Cacique and the Tin Man hook up for all the money that the Tin Man will prevail but the simple fact is that such a scenerio is extremely remote and thus you are proposing you can only be wrong in a fairly illogical variation.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with your logic that the Tin Man will get disheartened and fall apart when engulfed by the real talent in the BC Turf, as that is a situation that happens quite often. The hardest exacta to get home involves a longshot second to a very tough and strong favorite when the longshot also happens to be a speed and you know he will be confronted by the favorite early in the running. Such a horse is likely to be disheartened from attempting to fight off the favorite and losing the battle. However, the caveat you offered, in light of the situation, tilts the scale of the argument dramatically in your favor.