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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
That's sort of the scenerio that rates to happen over 75% of the time.
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I don't know where you came up with that number. If I bet a horse that is the 2nd best horse in the race, they usually run 2nd. Once in a while, they may fade to 3rd or 4th because they get passed and get discouraged, but that probably only happens 10-20% of the time at the most.