[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Wow it's amazing how many horses I hear about on ATR are well below 20th place. I know it's early to assume all those above will make it or that the ones below won't earn more. I was just surprised. I'm always curious how much it'll take to get above the threshold should oversubscription happen. How likely an entrant is Blind Luck?

Is there anybody not on there that has been tossed around as up and coming? One I thought of was The Program, although I don't know much about him. Steve, were you guys talking about Coyote Legend the other day? I missed the name but after looking up the trainer I guessed you might mean that horse. I just remember him saying the sire was a head case.

The vast majority of earnings on the GS list is from 2yo events, so the up and comers/late developers are of course well down the list. Look at the Derby Trail events that are yet to come to get a feel for how much money is going to pour in to those 3yo's.

March 6
1 1/16 Mile, Grade III GOTHAM STAKES ($250,000)

March 13
1 1/16 Mile, Grade III TAMPA BAY DERBY, Tampa Bay Downs ($300,000)
1 1/16 Mile, Grade II REBEL STAKES, Oaklawn Park ($300,000)
1 1/16 Mile, Grade II SAN FELIPE STAKES, Santa Anita ($150,000)

March 20
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I FLORIDA DERBY, Gulfstream Park ($750,000)

March 27
1 1/8 Mile, Grade II LOUISIANA DERBY, Fair Grounds ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade II LANE’S END STAKES, Turfway Park ($500,000)
About 1 3/16, Group 2 UAE DERBY, Meydan Racecourse ($2,000,000)

March 28
1 1/8 Mile, Grade III SUNLAND DERBY, Sunland Park ($800,000)

April 3
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I WOOD MEMORIAL, Aqueduct ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I SANTA ANITA DERBY, Santa Anita ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade III ILLINOIS DERBY, Hawthorne Race Course ($500,000)

April 10
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES, Keeneland ($750,000)
1 1/8 Mile, Grade I ARKANSAS DERBY, Oaklawn Park ($1,000,000)

April 17
1 1/16 Mile, Grade II COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES, Keeneland ($300,000)

Not including the preposterous $2,000,000 for the UAE Derby, there's $8,000,000 in graded stakes money that will be distributed between now and the Lexington.

$175,000 should be about the cutoff line to get into the Derby.

(BTW.. Coyote Legend came up with Bret Calhoun for his TX-bred stake win at Sam Houston. He doesn't appear to be any kind of Derby prospect, but Calhoun will likely start shopping for some open company stakes opportunities for him after his 91 Beyer effort last Saturday.)