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Originally Posted by todko
Bernardini doesn't impress me one bit -- Brother Derek should have been rested after the Derby and same with SNS. Both were shot from their Derby efforts. Brother Derek took forever to get back to the track and ran poorly his first time back. SNS was so wiped out that he still hasn't made it back to the races. SNS was staggering down the stretch in the Preakness, Derek folded before the turn, and Bernardini looked a lot better than he should have.
Donna Brothers called it before the Preakness. She said both BD and SNS didn't look good.
In the Jim Dandy, Sunriver was injured. The rest of the Jim Dandy field were allowance horses at best.
Bernardini ran through slow fractions in the Travers (gimme a break -- 48 and nearly 1:13), was urged strongly, hit and urged, yet didn't come home in any riveting fashion. After those fractions, if Bernardini was truly "very special" or "gifted" or whatever Albertrani and his hype machine has been calling him, he should have cooked home in :22 or so. A healthy Bluegrass Cat would have run away from. Bright One would have been in the next county by the time Bernardini hit the wire. Discreet Cat would have been long gone.
Bernardini has just been very lucky so far. He's no superhorse. If the shieks let Invasor run he'll beat Bernardini.
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You're going to be a rich man or woman, Todko. If I felt as strongly as you do, I'd be loading up against Bernardini in the JCGC. Since you have no doubt that Invasor will beat Bernardini, I trust you will be betting the farm on that proposition.
Off the top of my head, I'd say there's maybe a 1/3 chance that Invasor will finish ahead of Bernardini. It's not going to shock me either way. However, it WOULD shock me if Invasor wins by 8. It would not shock me if Bernardini wins by 8. That's the difference to me. We've probably seen the best or nearly the best from Invasor. We don't know what Bernardini's best is yet.
--Dunbar