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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
You have it backwards. The truth is that it's not logical to use a slow pace as an excuse when your horse(Cacique) was basically on the lead. Cacique was neck and neck with The Tin Man at the quarter pole. I'm still waiting for you to explain what Cacique's excuse was. When they hit the stretch, The Tin Man and Cacique were neck and neck. At this point they both started sprinting and the next thing you knew, The Tin Man had a 3 length lead at the 1/16th pole. Cacique had no excuse. Do you honstly think the result would have been different if The Tin Man tracked Cacique the whole race? Either way, they would have been neck and neck at the quarter pole. How would the result have been different? When you get outsprinted that badly in the stretch, there is nothing that would have changed the outcome of the race.
When I watch a race where the pace is very slow and the winner goes wire-to-wire, I watch the come-from-behinders to see if any of them were closing even a little ground in the stretch. For example, if the pace is :50 and some horse comes from 7 lengths back and and only loses by a length or two, you could make a case that the horse would have had a chance to win with a faster pace. I'm obviously going to be watching to see how the horse is travelling too. Even if a horse is gaining ground, I'm not going to bet them in their next race unless the horse was moving well. That's why I was not going to bet that Clement Horse back that had all the trouble with Gomez. The horse was gaining some ground after having trouble, but the horse was not moving very well.
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Rupert, its very obvious to see that Cacique stayed steady in the lane, beaten a length.
But in years of watching races I always know how a race like that will end.
Obviously the Tin Man has a better burst of speed than cacique. He had not been asked to use it after setting a pace that still boggles my mind. He had a 100% full gas tank and when he was asked to use the burst, he did. He opened up two lengths and then held on by one. Now if he had opened up teh two lengths and tehn increased the margin I might agree with you.
But when you allow any horse that fast to go 1:15, 17 lengths slower than the female counterparts on the same day on the same course(pace setter there held 3rd so it wasnt that their race had carzy fast fractions) you just have to toss it as a result. Its what I did, and said i was doing as much the day of the Million.
I think sometimes you start arguments that you know the answer to just to play devils advocate.
ANyone who watches races and understands pace knows that when a horse is allowed to lope that slowly, in a walk for real, who has speed, taht how the always win teh race is by using a burst on the turn or at the top of the lane. he actually gave ground to Cacique from the 1/8th pole to the wire.