To begin with, I'll say that it looks very very competitive tomorrow. Given how the track played last week (everything came from the clouds to win), I have no idea how it'll play this week and from a punting point of view, It's a nightmare.
Here we go.
R1 - Prohibit (alt; Frosty Secret), Sol De Angra (alt; Matsunosuke)
R2 - Emirates Champion (alt; Monte Alto), Hot Six (alt; Titural)
R3 - Leahurst (alt; Aichi), Aranel (alt; Prime Defender)
R4 - Mutheeb (alt; Munaddam), Summit Surge (alt; Barbecue Eddie)
R5 - Quatier Latin (NAP) (alt; Real Secret), Storm Chispazo (alt; Musir)
R6 - Crowded House (alt; Snaafy), Perfect Stride (alt; Mr Crazy Boy)
R7 - Yasoodd (alt; Sovereign Remedy), Blues Ballad (alt; Balcarce Nov)
The first race sprint is a incredibly tricky contest, and as was said before much depends on how the track is riding. If horses are able to come from well off the pace again, Prohibit will be in with a massive chance granted a free passage through. There doesn't look like there is a great deal of pace in the race is a bit of a worry, though. Sol De Angra ran a decent first race in Dubai behind So Shiny last time and should improve, and rates as one of those who could race up with the pace if indeed there isn't much of it. Frosty Secret will have a chance again, but he usually finds one or two too good.
Emirates Champion has by far the best form in the field for the 2nd, and is lightly raced and will keep improving, you'd hope, and because of that he looks like the most likely winner, but the odds will be prohibitive. Hot Six ran a cracking race when in need of it last time, Gr1 form in South America and this extra furlong will help, he should give the favourite the most to do.
Although the drop in trip is a slight concern, Leahurst looked like a horse really going places last time and is hard to oppose under a 7lb higher mark. Aranel chansed him home last time, and arguably this 6f trip with a strong pace looks more ideal. If the track suits closers again, he could well cause an upset.
Mutheeb won too easily last time to not include in this, his form behind Leahurst looked good previously and he showed he is in great heart, still fairly handicapped and they certainly won't allow Barbecue Eddie to set the modest fractions he was allowed to on his last start and he will probably be a sahde outclassed in this. Summit Surge is going to improve a good deal for his reappearance after a long time off and will go very close once again, but I still feel he'd be better suited by a mile. The one that concerns me is Munaddam who still has a decent prize in him despite his increasing years, I selected him last time and it's been very hard for me to only have him as a first reserve for this. We shall see if that turns out to be a costly mistake, it certainly wouldn't surprise me.
My NAP goes in the guineas, but that is simply because I did not know where else to place my NAP, with each race being as competitive as the other. Doug Watson has kept no secrets regarding Quartier Latin and simply believes he is the best horse he has had for the carnival in several years. He has top class form in South America, has been trained for this race and I expact him to go very close at least with plenty in his favour. The Argentine Derby winner, Storm Chispazo is fascinating, but surely he will need a longer trip, but his class will tell and can run into a place, hopefully chasing the Watson trained horse. Musir was a hard horse to only include as a reserve, but he's yet to tackle this mile distance (he would have been beaten over this trip last time) and the 14 box makes life very tough for him, it'll take a monsterous performance for him to gain a win here in my opinion.
If the Maktoum Challenge was being run on turf, I'd have no doubt my nap would have been Perfect Stride, a quirky customer, who has any amount of ability, especially when returning from a break. However, he has no artifical surface experience. He is sure to have been trained on it, but it's the reason for him only being the second selection. Crowded House was a big eyecatcher last time, this extra ground will help and after that one run, you'd think he will be spot on for this. His only race to date on an artificial surface recorded an emphatic win and this hold up performer has everything right to run a very big race. I think the winner will definitely come from the two I have mentioned.
I've taken a bit of a gamble in the last by selecting Yasoodd and Blues Ballad who both appear pretty well handicapped here, and have as good a chance as many of them - not a race I want to get too involved in, however.
Good luck to all who play.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan
and now we murderers because we kill time
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