If you watch it from the regular pan shot and you hit the "freeze" (or pause) button right as the horse starts to take up, you will see that Preemptory is at least 1 1/2 lengths clear at that point.
With regard to whether Preemptory came in at all, I don't think there is any clear evidence from the head-on shot that he even came in. He may have slightly come in, but it's not conclusive. If he came in, I don't think he came in more than a foot (until well after the incident).
He obviously came in after the incident. He's obviously not going to go five-wide around the turn with nobody (except the winner) inside of him.
I think the main incident was simply a continuation of the bumping that had been going on between the 3 horses going down the backstretch. There was bumping between the 1a, the 1, and the 5 before they went into the turn. When they went into the turn, it got much worse and that was when the main incident occured. The 1a had been leaning in and bumping the 1 all down the backstretch. Then on the turn they end up bumping really hard. To me, all the evidence sows that the 1a, who was getting and bumping the 1 before the main incident was the culprit.
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