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Originally Posted by Dunbar
I agree with Scav that you are looking at it in a sharp way. I don't agree with your numbers, though. I think Super Frolic will be more like 10-1 then 20-1 in the Goodwood. And if he wins it, he will be more like 5-1 than 12-1 in the BCC. Even using my numbers, it makes sense to parlay the bet as you suggested. The only way it could come out worse than the future bet would be for Super Frolic to win the Goodwood and Bernardini to NOT run in the BCC. Then SF would probably go off at less than 5-1, and you would not be getting the 50-1 of the future bet.
That last effect is not negligible. Part of the reason I liked 50-1 on Second of June is the uncertainty about whether Bernardini will run. If I was 100% sure Bernardini would run, I would probably not like SOJ at 50-1.
--Dunbar
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I haven't paid much attention to who is going to the Goodwood so may be off on my 20-1 estimate but figured everyone tried to beat Lava Man and let him go off at even money in the Pacific Classic so it won't happen again. Super Frolic was 10-1 there and doesn't seem any more likely to beat Lava Man this time plus Lava Man doesn't look as susceptible as he did coming off the Hollywood Gold Cup. He'll probably wind up in the middle of our estimates and go off at 15-1.