[Dunbar]

I should probably let this thread die a typical death, but reading some posts here really bugged me. The dismissive tone of many of these posts is unfortunate for a number of reasons.

I consider Rupert an invaluable source of information on 2-year-olds and other lightly raced horses. His eye for running ability is pretty much the only thing that will get me to bet on a maiden race. If he likes a horse in a maiden race, I will bet it, period.

I didn’t always have this view. I’m a speed figure guy, and Rupert is disdainful of speed figures. (If Rupert ever quotes a speed figure, it would probably be with the qualifier, “for you speed figure guys…”) So I was full of skepticism when I first encountered Rupert about 6.5 years ago. I had the same view as some of the posters in this thread: “I can’t believe this guy puts so much emphasis on how a horse LOOKS running!!”

Over the course of 2 years, I followed Rupert’s picks on over 600 races. He showed a remarkable 9% profit from those picks. These results were not skewed by one or two gigantic payoffs, either. They were all win or win/place bets on medium priced horses. The chance of getting a positive result over that many races by luck alone (without the help of big exotic payoffs) is pretty small.

Although Rupert included all kinds of races in his picks, it’s my opinion that his biggest strength was with the maidens he had personally seen work at Ocala and other sales. This was the kind of information that just wasn’t accessible to the vast majority of the betting public.

Speed figures are still the starting point for my own capping, but I would never dismiss any opinion of Rupert’s. And I bet seriously on any post of his with a title like “nice first-timer in 3rd at Oaklawn”. I wish he'd make more posts like that, or better yet, email them to me privately!

--Dunbar