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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Thus he didn't overachieve. He was about five lengths the best.
I am going to guess that you liked him at the 2YO sale, and perhaps recommended that some people could have or should have purchased him. Therefore, should he turn out to be OK, you will look good and perhaps be able to use this for your benefit. Now, don't get me wrong, if I am correct here, I see nothing wrong with that, and can't imagine what smart person wouldn't do the same. But, I do think it may be clouding your judgement and affecting your objectivity.
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You are partially right. I did like him at the 2YO sales but I didn't have any clients that were buying at either one of those sales (he was in 2 different sales) so I didn't recommend him to anyone.
A horse's work at a 2YO sale definitely influences my opinion because it gives me an opinion about a horse before he has even run. This is not to my detriment. Quite to the contrary, it makes me a lot of money betting. It often makes me more money in their 2nd or even 3rd career starts than in their debut. It's not easy to win first-time out. I obviously couldn't bet the horse yesterday because he was no price but there are plenty of times where these horses will just run mediocre first-time out and will come back and win 2nd time out or even 3rd time out.
With regards to the horse yesterday, my opinion of him at the 2YO sale definitely affects my opinion of him now. However, it doesn't affect my opinion on how much trouble I think he had.