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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I didn't say why he dropped off.....I simply implied it wasn't because he checked. He was mildly tight, and I mean mildly, when they hit the exact start of the turn, but that almost always happens to an inside horse when they are lined up at that point ( which I'm sure you know ).
If I had to guess why he dropped off it was because the jockey ( wisely ) didn't feel a need to go after three horses vying for the lead, so the horse probably dropped back naturally. It isn't as thought the rider was either particularly urging or restraining him....he just seemed to be riding him. If, in fact, he could have stayed closer ( sorry, but we don't know this ), it might not be unfair to say that in retrospect he should have tried to extracate himself form the other horses, but that's in hindsight knowing he was forced to steady.
Look, you got me to waste ten minutes of my life viewing the pan and head-on a few times. I suggest you do the same.
He might improve, but getting excited about his race yesterday doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
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I did watch both the pan and the head-on several times. I agree with alot of what you're saying. The second check was severe. The first check was only slight. The horse actually probably checked himself somewhat because he was in so tight. But I still view that as trouble and something that cost the horse position. And the 2nd check was obviously severe and was something that most horses would not recover from.
With an outside post, I think the horse would have won by 9-10 lengths.