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Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
Thats fine... Shes simply not that good. Julians horse is clearly most talented and if she moves forward they will not beat her.
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Clearly most talented?
Tar Heel Mom may not be 'that good', but she's good enough to be a multiple stakes winner. Odd that Gr. I (Test) placed
Pretty Prolific doesn't merit a look because according to you elsewhere, Gr. I races are the 'only things that matter'. ML favorite
Thunder's Dove and her run of 5 open length wins by a combined 25 lengths hasn't displayed talent? All Orseno's filly (
D'wild Ride) has in her favor is four straight wins late last year over four different racetracks including sealed mud and slop strips. Hell, at 20-1 and 12-1,
Saratoga Tango and
Honchis'n Ponchis are interesting and have faster races on their resumes than Warbling.
Warbling has run two mediocre races and looks like she may have upside, but do some work and dig into the two wins and the questions will start to pile up. She has bested two god awful fields, and that 91 Beyer at KEE is as phony a fig as you'll ever see. There has been ONE winner to come out of that 10/30 MDN group, Patti's Regal Song (Reed/Jamgotchian) who beat an even uglier bunch of no-hopers with an 81 Beyer and then regressed to a 71 in an ALW try.
The ALW group Warbling faced was horrific, starting with Ruth E, the Mott filly she beat in a head bobber. Ruth E broke her MDN in her
11th try before that ALW... The rest? Vegas Wedding was a $30k claim that is running with Turfway 70-Beyer ALW types; Fortune Play a mid 70's Beyer type destined for $25k claimers; Passion Du Coeur was completely out of form with Beyers of 60, 58, 46 and 59 in her last 4 since September; etc., etc.. The others were worse.
Point is, you need a
significant forward move from Warbling to beat seasoned stakes horses that have already established that they run races 6-12 lengths faster than Warbling. And she's likely to get bet well below the 6-1 ML. The ONLY thing she has in her favor is the pace scenario, because she sure is far from being 'clearly more talented' than the rest of these...