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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
Pedroza doesn't win as much as Gomez, but its not only due to the fact he isn't as good a rider as Gomez. If Gomez rode every mount of Pedroza's last year instead of Martin, how much better do you think he would have done? A little better but not as much as you might think.
In the race in question, the horse was an obvious play. It was the morning line favorite even with Pedroza. It didn't take the best jockey in the land to make it look like a strong play.
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Jim, I've read a lot of good posts by you, so I'm sure you know that it's not a question of whether a horse is an obvious favorite. It's a question of whether the horse will offer value (in this case) as part of a multi-race ticket.
The rider is just one part, as you said. But the difference between Gomez and Pedroza is a piece of significant information that could easily put a bet in or out of whatever value threshold a good bettor is looking for. We can argue about how important this particular info was, but I don't think there can be any argument about whether the info was relevant.
I completely agree with cmorioles on this.
--Dunbar