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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
He's had a flat bet profit in 8 of the last 13 years.
Even if you take away the two Tiago and Giacomo years and pretend both never happened .. that would make him profitable in 6 of 11 years. And one of the two years taken away, he still would have showed a FBP without the aid of the longshot winner.
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That is true. But having a 50-1 can have a pretty large effect. For example, if a guy had 100 starters a year and had a dead average ROI ($1.64) for a 3 year period, and then he won with a 50-1 shot, his ROI would skyrocket all the way up to a positive ROI of $2.02. So one crazy longshot would turn a dead average ROI positive for a 3 year period.
Who are the other trainers with the highest ROIs the last 15 years? I bet they are not any of the guys who we suspect of cheating. Because as you said before, the fans catch on to the cheaters pretty quickly and the high ROI will disappear after 3-4 years at the most.