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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
No. The guys who I'm assuming you're thinking of may have really high win percentages, but not necessarily high ROIs right now ... but only because their reputation has been so strong that there horses get overbet.
Guys like Dutrow Jr., Mullins etc.
However, before those type of guys get the big win percentages, and develop big reputations with bettors, they all had dazzling ROI's. ALL of them.
The win percentage stat is more about trainers placing horses in the right spots. The ROI is a pretty good statistical indicatior of production versus expectations.
I've been a big fan of his almost from day 1... and he sounds like a good guy. However...he's a guy that has an overall flat bet profit with EVERY single horse he's saddled since '96. He's a guy who's had a flat bet profit with every single horse he saddled in 8 different years since '96. He's a guy that won at a 40% clip with every horse he saddled in 1999.
He was the best trainer I've ever seen with having a debuter ready when he had 505's horses. Now he's really one of the best - if not the best - out there at getting good horses to peak on the right day.
Having an edge doesn't have to mean using illegal drugs, aggressive vets, and cheating. There might be guys who are doing those three things and not getting much production from them.
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I totally agree with you that a cheating trainer will obviously have an extremely high ROI to go along with his high win percentage initially. But as you said, once everybody catches on, they will bet his horses and he will no longer have a really high ROI. The high ROI will disappear after a few years (maybe 3-4 years at the most).
I agree with you that Shireffs is great at pointing a horse for a certain race and getting the horse to peak for that race. That type of trainer should have a higher ROI than average because when people are handicapping a race, they are looking at a horse's PPs and are not expecting a horse to improve. They are expecting the horse to possibly repeat the best race he has ever run. They are not expecting the horse to step up and run much better than he's ever run before. Trainers who are pointing for a certain race, may indeed get the horse to step up in that race and run better than they've ever run before. That would give that type of trainer a much higher ROI than your average trainer.