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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I think a really high winning percentage is much more indicative of a trainer having an edge than a high ROI. We all know who some of the trainers with an edge are. Most of them have really high win percenatges, but not necessarily high ROIs.
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No. The guys who I'm assuming you're thinking of may have really high win percentages, but not necessarily high ROIs right now ... but only because their reputation has been so strong that there horses get overbet.
Guys like Dutrow Jr., Mullins etc.
However, before those type of guys get the big win percentages, and develop big reputations with bettors, they all had dazzling ROI's. ALL of them.
The win percentage stat is more about trainers placing horses in the right spots. The ROI is a pretty good statistical indicatior of production versus expectations.
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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
From what I know of Shireffs, he is the last guy in the world that I would suspect of having an edge. He is one of the most honest trainers out there. Not only that, he has always used the most conservative veterinarians. The cheating trainers use the agressive and cheating vets, not the conservative vets.
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I've been a big fan of his almost from day 1... and he sounds like a good guy. However...he's a guy that has an overall flat bet profit with EVERY single horse he's saddled since '96. He's a guy who's had a flat bet profit with every single horse he saddled in 8 different years since '96. He's a guy that won at a 40% clip with every horse he saddled in 1999.
He was the best trainer I've ever seen with having a debuter ready when he had 505's horses. Now he's really one of the best - if not the best - out there at getting good horses to peak on the right day.
Having an edge doesn't have to mean using illegal drugs, aggressive vets, and cheating. There might be guys who are doing those three things and not getting much production from them.