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Originally Posted by philcski
How many horses have won the BCJ or BCJF off just a debut race?
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How many have ever been entered?
Very, very, very few ... and none of them even had so much as a slim chance.
You can find a lot of 4th and 5th choices who simply have no chance. Very rarely do you find a 4th or 5th choice who only needs to run back to her last race to win.
Few trainers suck as much as Ken McPeak does with debuting sprinters. Few trainers have ever been as strong as Ken McPeak is with 2nd time starters going long.