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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there.
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Yeah, the value would be there if you mean big odds ... but so would a less than sensational race ... and such a horse would have no shot at big odds.
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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.
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She is more likely than not to bomb .... but she is also more likely to win than her projected closing odds will indicate.
I have her as a possible big overlay to win and a possible huge underlay to finish underneath in exotics.
The opposite of how a horse like a Perfect Drift or Dynever was often a big underlay to win and an overlay to finish underneath.
Anyone that uses her in the 3rd or 4th slot in exotics is a fool. Anyone that denies her extreme once-a-year like debut talent is also being extremely foolish.