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Originally Posted by Gander
As much a fan of Bernardini as I am, 3/1 odds isnt all that great to me Dunbar. Theres another race to run before the Classic and many workouts still to happen between now and first week of November. The biggest knock I have against Bernardini is something may not go right between now and then. 3/1 isnt worth it in my book. Seems like far too many things can go wrong with horses and it makes no difference what kind of horse it is. The horse can come down with a cold the week of the race and not start.
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You are probably right. I'm not really stressing the 3-1. I was illustrating how one could estimate the risk and get an idea what fair future odds might be. I was primarily responding to the poster's remark that he/she'd never take less than 10-1 on a future bet.
I chose a 75% chance that Bernardini makes the race and a 33% chance he wins if he makes the race. (btw, which of those do you think is off?). My main point was that 9-1 is definitely worth taking, no matter what reasonable numbers you assign to those two probabilities.
If you think Bernardini has just a 60% chance to make the race, and if you think he has just a 25% chance of winning it if he starts, you'd come up with an overall 15% chance of winning. (60%*25% = 15%) Those figs would suggest that 5-1 is about fair. 9-1 would still look very generous.
--Dunbar