Quote:
|
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
There's this long forgotten old handicapping angle called "The Best Horse"
In the Juv Fillies - Connie and Michael is probably the horse who best fits that angle... and the win of hers was at 7 furlongs... not six.
If you remember back to last year ... the horse who came into this race as "the worst horse" was 2nd time starter Dave's Revenge. She finished 4th beaten just 3 lengths by Stardom Bound at 64/1 odds. A nose behind Sky Diva for 3rd place.
You shouldn't forget about her ... because she makes a great trivia question. The question being 'name the horse who ran 4th in a Breeders Cup in just it's 2nd lifetime start ... and was claimed for $16,000 the following summer"
People will instantly think colt ... because any filly who misses 3rd by a nose in a BC race in just it's 2nd start - would figure to have more than 16K residual value as a broodmare prospect.
Her dam sire was Afternoon Deelites .. maybe that 4th was her version of a Hollywood Futurity romp over Thunder Gulch. I don't know.
Anyway, I'm not sure Connie and Michael has to get bet and will be one of the shortest prices.
People will be foolish enough to recall the Forest Music debacle... and FM was a horse who went a record 20.80 at the FT Calder 2yo sale. That was back when that type of preview was unheard of.
This is a totally different kind of horse than a one-way speed crazed stopper like FM.
|
I think it's certainly possible that Connie and Michael could end up being the best horse going forward but I want no part of a horse that's being asked to do so much so fast. Even in this day and age where horses are being run in races with fewer preps and more time between races, going 1 1/16 miles on a new surface off of one 7 furlong race just flies in the face of conventional handicapping, in my estimation.
If you were asking this of a horse that was an outsider and you had reason to think they could make this type of leap at a fair price then one might consider it, but Connie and Michael is just not going to offer the value necessary to take such a calculated risk.
NT