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Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May
I will never take anything lower than 10/1 in a future bet because the risk outweighs the reward so the first 3 are out.
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You wouldn't take Bernardini at 9-1? I'd be all over that one.
The risks can be estimated. And if a horse has, say, a 75% chance to start in the race, and, say, a 33% chance to win if he starts (some would consider that too conservative for Bernardini), then overall he has about a 25% chance to win the race. That would put fair odds for a future bet at around 3-1. I'd make a much bigger than normal bet if I could get 9-1.
--Dunbar