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Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
Remember that when him and Best Pal were racing against each other, Best Pal was a far more experienced and seasoned horse. In my eyes, there was a large gap in talent between those two.
At this point, he's got 4 wins and a tough beat second in 5 starts. This horse was the real deal and almost certainly was better than anything in the East that year.
By the way, your comparison with horses later that decade is irrelevant. If anything, Dinard was right in the middle of a streak where the Santa Anita Derby winner was seemingly cursed.
In that span, I'd say Dinard and Indy were just about as close to locks as you can have in that race, had they not been hurt.
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You still neglect Hansel who almost certainly ran as fast, if not faster than any of Dinard's races in his track record performance in the Jim Beam.
Further, let's look at strict form with regards to Hansel:
Jim Beam: dusts Apollo by open lengths
Preakness: dusts Best Pal and Olympio by open lengths
That alone is enough to suggest that Hansel would have been a good matchup with Dinard (assuming Dinard was the West's best), and thus negates any suggestion that Dinard was some sort of "lock" in the Derby.
Dinard strained some portion of his suspensory ligament roughly 10 days before the Kentucky Derby (3 weeks since the SA Derby) after breezing 6f in 1:18+ at CD.
As for Best Pal, perhaps more seasoned, but he was making a somewhat belated 3yo debut (March) and had just 2 preps leading to the Derby. You could argue that Dinard had the advantage with all the recent racing (which may have ultimately been his undoing).
As for the SA Derby history, not sure where you going with the curse thing (how would this help your argument that Dinard was a lock in the Derby anyways?), but I was suggesting that Best Pal's runner-up efforts didn't necessarily mean he was not as good as Dinard, but rather a result of "prepping" for a more important contest (which would fall in line with the fact that Best Pal started the season late). Alluding to Silver Charm (who chased Free House), Real Quiet (who chased Artax and Indian Charlie), and Go For Gin (Irgun, Holy Bull) who all ultimately won the Derby was supposed to lend plausability to that scenario.
As for AP Indy, it seems contradictory to suggest he was a lock for the Derby as well, when you defend the thinking that Arazi was somehow cheated out of a Derby win (they both were entered for the '92 edition).
If Arazi was scratched raceday along AP Indy, who would have been more of a lock?