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Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
Dinard was nowhere near a certainty.
A deserving favorite perhaps, but then again, IIRC, Hansel was running much faster (at least in the Jim Beam). Obviously Hansel bombed on Derby day, but was his best race ultimately better than Dinard's? Quite possibly. What if he showed up on Derby Day?
And what of Best Pal? Yes, Dinard got the better of him in the San Rafael (in Best Pal's 3yo debut off a 3 month layoff) and the Santa Anita Derby. But wasn't that somewhat of a winning profile for several Derby winners that decade? Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Go For Gin were also only earning placings in their preps before "peaking" on Derby day. And in fact, Best Pal ran a huge race only to be beaten by Strike The Gold, who at the time was in very good form and getting as much press as any of the other principals. His typical Zito decline later on has no relevance here.
Also of note is the results of the Strub series later that year when the roles between Dinard and Best Pal were reversed. Best Pal, in top form, was not threatened in the slightest by Dinard in either the San Fernando (at 9f) or the Strub (at 10f). Obviously, its quite possible Dinard's injury had residual effects that kept him from realizing his full potential, but obviously not enough to keep him from competing in Grade 1 events. Interestingly, both he and old rival Olympio never ran again after chasing Best Pal in the Strub series.
Finally, Dinard worked notoriously poorly leading up to the Derby (6f in 1:18). Was he injured in the work? Probably, but he certainly didn't limp off the track (the injury wasn't detected until 4 or 5 days post-work), so it's still possible he didn't care for the CD surface.
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My recollection was that he bowed sometime after the Santa Anita Derby.
Remember that when him and Best Pal were racing against each other, Best Pal was a far more experienced and seasoned horse. In my eyes, there was a large gap in talent between those two.
And yeah, Dinard was nowhere near the same horse after the injury. It's pretty well established that horses are usually diminished after that injury, which is a testament to how good that horse would have been.
To recap, Dinard didn't even debut until opening day of SA. He won by 5 in 109.3.
Wheeled back in just two weeks in the Los Feliz, he wins by 6 in 135.3 over the VERY nice Olympio and Formal Dinner!
Back a month later, he drops back down to 7f in the San Vicente and loses by a nose to Olympio, while 9 back in third was Scan. Time? 121.2
Three weeks later is the San Rafael. Back again to a mile, he gets a super hard fought win over the vastly underrated Apollo (by a head) with Best Pal also in the photo for third. Eight back to fourth. Time was 135.4. To this day, one of the best races I've ever seen and one of my favorites as well.
Next up is the Santa Anita Derby. Another win over Best Pal in 148 flat, this time by a half length.
At this point, he's got 4 wins and a tough beat second in 5 starts. This horse was the real deal and almost certainly was better than anything in the East that year.
After the injury he made only three starts, all in the Strub series, and that was it. He never won, though he did get a 117 BSF in his last start for running second. That horse was simply great, no ifs ands or buts about it.
By the way, your comparison with horses later that decade is irrelevant. If anything, Dinard was right in the middle of a streak where the Santa Anita Derby winner was seemingly cursed.
After Sunday Silence won in 89:
1990 Mister Frisky. Almost dies during the triple crown from a throat abscess and never regained his winning ways.
1991 Dinard. See above.
1992 AP Indy. Scratched out of the Ky Derby on that very morning.
1993 Personal Hope. Never really heard from ever again.
1994 Brocco. Couldn't overcome Randy Winnick. Did he ever win again?
1995 Larry the Legend. Won the SA Derby and then didn't run again for like 15 months.
1996 was Cavonnier. I know he barely lost the derby, but wasn't he hurt shortly after that?
In that span, I'd say Dinard and Indy were just about as close to locks as you can have in that race, had they not been hurt.