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Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I don't know what he was thinking with Dinard. That horse was a near certainty to win his derby. EOTY I agree with him, sorta. I doubt he could have beaten that field.
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Dinard was nowhere near a certainty.
A deserving favorite perhaps, but then again, IIRC, Hansel was running much faster (at least in the Jim Beam). Obviously Hansel bombed on Derby day, but was his best race ultimately better than Dinard's? Quite possibly. What if he showed up on Derby Day?
And what of Best Pal? Yes, Dinard got the better of him in the San Rafael (in Best Pal's 3yo debut off a 3 month layoff) and the Santa Anita Derby. But wasn't that somewhat of a winning profile for several Derby winners that decade? Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Go For Gin were also only earning placings in their preps before "peaking" on Derby day. And in fact, Best Pal ran a huge race only to be beaten by Strike The Gold, who at the time was in very good form and getting as much press as any of the other principals. His typical Zito decline later on has no relevance here.
Also of note is the results of the Strub series later that year when the roles between Dinard and Best Pal were reversed. Best Pal, in top form, was not threatened in the slightest by Dinard in either the San Fernando (at 9f) or the Strub (at 10f). Obviously, its quite possible Dinard's injury had residual effects that kept him from realizing his full potential, but obviously not enough to keep him from competing in Grade 1 events. Interestingly, both he and old rival Olympio never ran again after chasing Best Pal in the Strub series.
Finally, Dinard worked notoriously poorly leading up to the Derby (6f in 1:18). Was he injured in the work? Probably, but he certainly didn't limp off the track (the injury wasn't detected until 4 or 5 days post-work), so it's still possible he didn't care for the CD surface.