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Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
what race has he won good enough to win this, if you are going with the fall apart scenario isnt a stronger closer like Ravalo a better play? (not that I think this scenario happens).
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I dont think Peace Chant is necessarily a closer. Hes usually shown pretty good speed to be very close to fast paces. He did take way back in his race at Turf Paradise and was lucky that the race completely fell apart, and stormed home to win. That was a fast enough race to win this, if the same scenario occured. Dpends on what the new trainer/jockey strategy is. I dont know if you can label him a closer off of 1 race. He was pretty close to that fast pace in the Forego and to me that was a complete throw out as it was his first one back off a long layoff. Hes clearly not the same horse he was in 07 but I dont think a win here is that far fetched. If you believe in trainer angles, this new trainer (Phipps) has a high win % with horses going first time for him. I dont know, not the worst stab in the world.
I also dont think Ravalo is that much of a closer either. Hes got pretty good speed to stay fairly close. Hes in awesome form and knows how to win, but these are much better horses than hes been beaten.
True Quality isnt in raging form either and he may go off 2nd choice in here. Why does this horse deserve such a high rating? Because he won 1 race at Laurel back when he was in really good form? As if the mere fact this race is at the same racetrack is going to bring him back to who he was?