[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Guerrero and Helton have better numbers than quite a few current hall of famers.

Guererro should be a cinch. He was one of the top 5 all around players for the majority of his career, mostly playing in parks that dont favor hitters. He had the best arm in baseball outside of Ichiro before he got hurt though he was never a great outfielder.

Like Guerrero, Helton has numbers and has been injury plagued but played in Coors which means he should be held to a higher standard.

Ichiro is a lock as is Chipper Jones.
Hoffman is deserving and likely.
IMO Smoltz should be in easy.
Damon is a no as is Pettite (not because they are Yankees either)
Abreu probably wont do enough

Thome and Sheffield are the toughest for me.

Sheffield played 21 seasons and ran up some nice career numbers but is still 300 hits shy of 3000. Out of 21 years he had 8 really good seasons, so he actually had more subpar seasons than really good ones. And this is during the juice era where numbers are generally inflated 20% or so. He was a terrible fielder at a bunch of positions and has been linked to steroids which makes his top seasons at later ages suspicious. I'd say no to him.

Thome is similar in that he has played a long time and was limited in most areas except for power hitting. Despite being known for HR's he only led the league 1 time. He made 5 all star teams which is less than most HoF'ers. He was in the top 5 MVP voting 1 time. He never won any awards. He did lead the league in k's 3 times. He only has 2100 hits despite the length of his career. He is ranked 23rd all time in slugging % and is 48th in OBP though both are positively effected by the era he played in. He is 10th lifetime in walks but that is countered by being 2nd all time in strikeouts. His numbers are very similar to harmon Killebrew but he played during the modern deadball era. I would be surprised if he gets in but I dont know if I would vote for him.

Interesting that for you, Jones is a lock while Thome and Sheffield are questionable. I looked at their career 162g averages and they are all very similar:

Jones 32-108, .307 avg, .406 obp, 11 sb, 109 runs
Sheff 32-105, .292 avg, .393 obp, 16 sb, 103 runs
Thome 40-111, .277 avg, .404 obp, 1 sb, 105 runs

Here's where I come out on it. When I have to debate their numbers or compare their cases against other players, that's a no for me. To me, a hall of famer is one that I say yes to without having to look at the numbers to make their case or say "well, since so and so's in, he should be in too." Guerrero was one of the most feared hitters in the game for a number of years and we remember that without looking up any numbers. Ichiro is one of the best hitters in the history of the game. No need to look up any numbers to remind you of that.