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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Using Keeneland's terrific polycapping database, I've put together a few numbers on the winners of only poly races for the first half of the meet. Small sample size, but what the hell, maybe there's something to be learned.
# of polytrack races: 65
avg. half-mile position of winner: 2.4 lengths behind
winners with prior polytrack start: 47 of 65
winners without prior polytrack start: 18 of 65 (7 of them had at least one turf start)
winners with prior polytrack win: 32 of 65
winners' last race surface: dirt - 9 AWS - 26 turf - 25 none (FTS) - 5
winners with last workout at KEE: 24 of 65
winners with last workout on AWS: 37 of 65
posts 1-2: 7-for-130 (5.4%)
posts 3-5: 20-for-195 (10.3%)
posts 6-10: 32-for-274 (11.7%)
posts 11-14: 6-for-52 (11.5%)
hot barns
McPeek - 31/6-4-6 ($2.80 ROI)
Arnold - 12/4-3-1 ($6.31 ROI)
Proctor - 10/3-1-1 ($2.97 ROI)
cold barns
Lukas - 16/0-0-0
Harty - 8/0-0-1
Asmussen - 7/0-0-1
Foley - 9/0-1-1
Wilkes - 14/0-2-3
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all polytrack races at keeneland through the spring meet '09
# of polytrack races: 729
avg. half-mile position of winner: 2.19 lengths behind
Top sires: Tale of the Cat 17, Unbridled's Song 16, AP Indy 14, Giant's Causeway 13, Dynaformer 12, Storm Cat 12, Pulpit 12, Grand Slam 12, Distorted Humor 11, Smart Strike 10, Indian Charlie 10
Average exacta: $131
Average trifecta: $955
Previous race at distance longer than start: 200/729
Previous race at distance shorter than start: 382/729
Same distance: 147/729
Route to Sprint: 119/520
Sprint to Sprint: 354/520
Sprint to Route: 37/209
Route to Route: 172/209
winners with prior polytrack start: 416 of 661 (excluding FTS)
winners without prior polytrack start: 245 of 661 (71 of them had at least one turf start)
winners with prior polytrack win: 227 of 661 (excluding FTS)
winners' last race surface: dirt - 217 AWS - 266 turf - 178 none (FTS) - 68
winners with last workout at KEE: 328 of 729
winners with last workout on AWS: 399 of 729