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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Says who? Racing is about many things. If you are talking about handicapping successfully, then it most certainly is NOT about taking the kind of position that says a horse has no chance or says a horse is a lock. Those are the kind of "stands" that complete amateurs would take. Every horse has a chance. The successful capper is one who can tell that the odds he or she is getting on a bet is better than "fair" odds.
I'm sure Rupert will have a "position" when it counts, which is on race day. A reasonable position at that point is NOT "I'm going to bet Lava Man." A reasonable position would be "I'll bet Lava Man if it looks like I'm going to get 6-1", or some other number that Rupert thinks is higher than "fair" odds.
Is this your idea of "taking a position"? What does "I will be stunned" mean exactly? Would you give me 50-1 on LM hitting the board? Do you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance of hitting the board? Without even capping the race carefully, I'll take all the action at 9-1 that you want to give. That's a good bet for you if you think Lava Man has less than a 10% chance to hit the board. But I'm pretty sure that that bet is not appealing to you. So what is "stunned" exactly?
Let me shift gears a minute. What if I say that Invasor is a great bet at 7-1 in the JCGC? Well, if he wins, am I a genius? If he loses, am I a dope?
If I like Invasor at 7-1 and he loses, so what? If I win 20% of my 7-1 bets, I would be the envy of every sports bettor and handicapper in the world. But winning 20% of the time means losing 80% of the time. (I know you knew that, ;>), but I'm stressing the downside!) So Invasor losing doesn't say much about my capping, does it?
In a similar vein, Invasor winning wouldn't make me a genius either. Maybe Invasor winning is the only 7-1 shot I'll pick in my next 20 bets in that odds range.
Over the course of time if accurate records were being kept, which they certainly aren't here, statements like "I like Invasor at 7-1" would add up and either show the person knows how to cap or doesn't know squat. But tossing out an opinion, or worse, a "stand", here and there doesn't prove anything.
And insisting that someone "take a stand" rather than voice a hedged opinion is ludicrous.
--Dunbar
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I really don't need your obvious dissertation on value wagering. Thanks for the effort but I actually understood it going in.
On the other hand, while believe it or not, I probably have a better resume of successful wagering than you, I think when discussing horses on this board it gives a poster more credibility if he or she has stronger opinions and doesn't hedge what they say constantly. That was the point I was making.
All I said was I would be shocked if Lava Man hits the board. I never said I was taking a stand though I am quite sure that come race day I will take a stand that at least somewhat hinges on that opinion ( where it counts...at the betting windows ). The fact that you have chosen to assault me as though I made some outrageous claims about that opinion is what is actually, to steal a word from your post, ludicrous.