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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.
I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).
I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.
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I think your questions about O'Neil are legitimate. I think that the horse does need to prove that he can win away from California. I would understand if you said you still aren't convinced that the horse can win away from California. I wouldn't have a problem with that. But I just think it is crazy to for someone to say they would be "shocked if the horse hit the board." As I said, west coast horses have a history of doing well when they go back east. Even a lot of our mediocre horses such as Bob and John go back east and win. And when we have a dominant horse out here, they can practically always compete with east coast horses. LM is one of the most dominant horses we've had in 20 years.
Some of his races last year were unbelievable. He beat some good horses by about 8 lengths in the Hollywood Gold Cup and he ran a huge number. I think his Beyer was around 116. If you check his sheet numbers in some of those races, I'm sure they were huge.
It certainly wouldn't be a shock for him to hit the board. Aside from Bernardini, there aren't any great dirt horses back there.