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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
When you let things like numeric pace determine how a race is really run RATHER than how the race is actually run, then you tend to interpret a race as your theory dictates.
running lines at the 1st quarter for the top 4 finishers of the races in question:
1) aqu 4/4/09 :: 7-1-2-4 --- huge single run by KK off the pace
2) cd 5/2/09::: 1-6-9-5 --- huge run by The Roundhouse (9) while KK didn't do squat
3) pha 6/27/09::: 6-3-2-7 ---- perfect setup as everything on/near the pace collapsed
4) sar 8/09/09:: 2-1-6-4-5-3 ---- about as front favoring as you'd want -- barely any movement in race
5) sar 9/5/09::: 11-9-12-4-2-3 --- COLLAPSE
I've stopped looking at race in terms of how they're supposed to be run and just take them as they are run. KK has shown that he doesn't need a perfect setup to win. In fact, he's shown that he can run against the grain. This makes him considerably better, in this sense, than, probably, 90% of the horses out there (who need perfect trips).
What's interesting is that you're critical of KK, yet, on another thread, you claim to be impressed by Better Talk Now, who hasn't run an against the grain race in YEARS (if ever --- I only went back a few years in charts). Now, there's a horse that can't even win in a collapsing setup.
P.S. I'm 'married' to the early/late positioning thing because after looking at a million or so charts, it finally kicked in that this is an important factor. Races fit certain types and these all basically 'look' the same. Horses, with very extreme exceptions, don't 'outrun' these setups. Just the way it is.
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I agree that early/late positioning is important, but it's too reliant on how good the speed/closers are to be used solely in determining pace setup. Just because Kodiak Kowboy was the only one who closed in the Carter, that doesn't mean that the race didn't set up for him. The blistering pace and slow come home time tell us otherwise. No other decent closers lifted a hoof. Tale of Ekati has been slow/injured this year, Ah Day isn't a Grade 1 horse, etc. This doesn't make KK's race any better. He didn't make a "huge run", he came lumbering along to barely nail an understandably tired Fabulous Strike at a distance unfavorable to FS. Like I said, even with the Assman's magic, I'd be stunned if this horse beat FS at six furlongs today.
Totally ignoring relative fractions and relying solely on early/late positioning is a pretty hardheaded strategy.