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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I have no interest in this race, but the bolded portion is just wrong. In his last 5 races:
1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise.
2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace
3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup
4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement
5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late.
So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.
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So the Carter wasn't a perfect setup because FS hung around? At that point in time Driven by Success was one of the better sprinters on the east coast and the fact that he and Fab Strike hung around is not that surprising. KK needed every bit of that final furlong to get up when he was able to lay back and make his one run in a race where FS BURIED all of the other speed.
I can forgive the CD race because he's never been that great on wet tracks.
You admitted the Pha race was a perfect setup.
Were GGS and FS not ripe for the picking at the top of the stretch in the Vanderbilt? They had set a quick pace and he swung out at the top of the stretch with two furlongs to get by.
The Forego was as perfect a setup as he's ever going to get.
Where you and I disagree about race flow is that it seems like you are occasionally married to the early vs. late positioning of the frontrunners when determining setups. Don't get me wrong, that's a huge part of understanding race flow but is certainly not the be all end all of it. The fact that FS and DbS hung around in the Carter should not in any way be a feather in Kodiak Kowboy's cap.
NT