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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I'd have a very, very hard time betting Kodiak Kowboy tomorrow. When a horse like him who makes one big run has been failing with terrific setups then it's not a good idea at all to take him going a trip that has never been his best. This race would be vastly different if it was 7 furlongs but, alas, it is not and thus he's going to have to be in high gear very early.
NT
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I have no interest in this race, but the bolded portion is just wrong. In his last 5 races:
1) aqu 4/4/09: huge run to get Fabulous Strike at wire in race where top 2 held to wire otherwise.
2) cd 5/2/09: no shot where Accredit wired on off track -- nothing ran from off the pace
3) pha 6/27/09: wiped out a field where he got a nice setup
4) sar 8/9/09: no shot as FS and GGS went 2-1 around the track, in race with very little movement
5) sar 9/5/09: one of three coming late in race that fell apart late.
So he has a huge run in a race against the grain, and a wipe-out run in
one of the 2 races where he got a 'terrific' setup. In the other such race, he's running with 2 other closers.