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Old 09-24-2009, 07:29 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,695
Default 9/24: Belmont Park (6th-9th)

Interesting outcome on the P4 Wednesday, with the old fashioned AxBxCxD play hitting for $425 while the multiple play TicketMaker suggestions missed the skien. That was more due to my tinkering with rankings of the horses after the scratches than any faulty methodology of the multi-ticket approach. The lesson is still viable even in the loss, as on many days I might have decided to leave 4th leg/3rd choice Nostalgia off the 4x3x2x3 ticket in favor of 3rd leg/3rd choice Richland Creek. Had I made that move, the ticket would have been a 4x3x3x2 play and would have missed.

The TicketMaker multi-ticket approach would have that combination much more often than not... And although I miscued with it Wednesday, I still will be working with it to try and improve the P4/P6 approaches. We should collectively benefit from the method long term as it gets better coverage and makes better use of investment dollars than 'caveman' tickets. Hope you did well yesterday and will bear with me on the experimentation!

Another good sequence to attack Thursday at Belmont. "At the Races" will be live 4-5pm only today before turning things over to the "Down the Stretch" team and their coverage of the Little Brown Jug from the Delaware (OH) County Fair Grounds!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cleric 7-2
Next Best: #2 Clean Shot 3-1
Best Value: #5 Captain Booyah 8-1
Super Add: #1 Triple Glory 8-1


7th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Quiet Alice 3-1
Next Best: #7 Boxitup 7-2
Best Value: #5 Beboblues Art 12-1
Exotics Use: #2 Platinumplus 5-2


8th: NYB-OC/C, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Wolfson 9-2
Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 3-1
Next Best: #6 Katskill Bay 5-1


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #13 Everybodywantsone 2-1
Next Best: #5 Love of Life 3-1
Best Value: #2 You Bet I'm Ready 10-1
Super Add: #10 Don'tquityourdayjob 5-1


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-8
7: 2-3-5-7
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-13

3x3x4x2 = $72


<$75 TicketMaker Style Plays:

1 $4.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 1,2 with 13 ($16.00)

2 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 2,7 with 1,2 with 13 ($8.00)
3 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 3 with 6 with 13 ($2.00)
4 $1.00 pick 4: 1,5 with 3 with 1,2 with 2,5 ($8.00)
5 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 6 with 13 ($4.00)
6 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 2,7 with 1,2 with 2,5 ($16.00)
7 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 6 with 2,5 ($4.00)

8 $1.00 pick 4: 7 with 3 with 1,2 with 13 ($2.00)
9 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 5 with 1,2 with 13 ($4.00)
10 $1.00 pick 4: 2,8 with 3 with 1,2 with 8,10 ($8.00)

Total: $72.00


Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 09-24-2009 at 11:36 AM.
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