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Originally Posted by Dunbar
It's facts like this that lead me to believe that Phalaris and BB are on the right side of this argument. The breed hasn't changed THAT much in 20 years. Horses used to run on 2-3 weeks rest (or even shorter) routinely. Have trainers REALLY gotten so much smarter in the last 20 years?
I don't think current trainers are either dumber or smarter than those 20 years ago. (Hell, many of the best today were training 20 years ago.) I think it's more a factor of what's fashionable (and follow the leader). It's only natural to fear making a mistake. If your horse is injured in a race, you are more likely to be harshly judged if the horse ran recently than if it ran after a big break. Yet I doubt there is any real evidence to support that judgement.
Rupert questions why ALL the best trainers today favor more spacing between races. It's a good question. But if it turns out that good horses run just as well on 2-3 weeks rest, it wouldn't be the first time that a whole group of the leaders of some endeavor were found to be taking a non-optimal approach.
--Dunbar
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What do you mean "If it turns out that good horses run just as well on 2-3 weeks rest?" We know that they don't. Maybe they did 40 years ago but they don't today. You act like they still don't know the answer as to whether good horses run just as well on short rest. We know they don't. Any good trainer will tell you this. They're not guessing. It's not just a hypothesis. They see their horses every day. As I said in an eariler post, any good trainer can see the effects of their training on their horses. If every time you start galloping a horse 2 miles a day as oppose to 1 1/2 miles a day, the horse starts losing weight, it's obvious that the extra exercise is amking the horse lose weight. Most of this stuff is not rocket science. A good trainer will notice even subtle changes in their horses.
There have been times that Todd Pletcher has said, "I hate to bring the horse back in 3 weeks. I wish I had more time." Why do you think he says this? Do you think he's just guessing that 3 weeks isn't enough time? He knows from experience.
Your contention that sometimes leaders don't take the optimal approach is not applicable here. Trainers have tried both methods. This isn't multiple choice either. There are two choices here: 2-3 weeks off vs 4-5 weeks off. They've tried both a million times. They can see what works better.