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Originally Posted by Dunbar
* Ed Thorp showed years ago that the optimal horseracing bet for bankroll growth is Edge*Bankroll/Odds. If you have a 10% edge and a $1000 bankroll, you should bet 10%*1000/2 = $50 on a 2-1 shot, but 10%*1000/10 = $10 on a 10-1 shot.
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i'll look it up, i'm just burn't out right now in need of a power nap... but do you have a link to Ed Thorp's papers?
The formula that I came up with is similar but more reliant on the individual than the public
Bankroll*0.05*(lowestimateHit%squared*lowestimate$ 2payout)/2
You plug it all in a spreadsheet with conditions that say if ($2price*hit%)/2 isn't more than 1.3 or1.2 whatever "value" demand, then zero is listed in betsize.
It's not a bad type of thing do work out with bets for a while and develop an intuitive feel of the type of bets you should be making and why, but it's pretty boring.
the effect that Thorp gets from using the odds has the same basis as why I choose to square the low estimate of hit%. Hit percentage is very important in keeping "randomness" out.