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Originally Posted by infield_line
Don't get me wrong, I'm a lifer and understand you have to take your lumps, and I have put enough intellectual energy into handicapping, that I could have earned a Masters degree... but there have been a series of winners over the last two days at SAR that are just confounding.... Horses that are simply un-pickable in advance based on the field in the gate. I'm not talking about MSW, but horses with some history. The 7th today with Prince Dubai.. just a dull may not win for another year horse, and The Sword Dancer as an example.....
I'm not asking for sympathy, but really more looking at handicapping as an activity that the average motivate fan could look at and decide that putting money at risk is a reasonable gamble. The twice a year punter looks at $40 and $50 winner and says "yea, I want some...." At the SPA, those kinds of prices are usually heartbreakers for serious players.... unless there is a total other quantum level of insight that I am blind to....
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sometimes you have to say , "none of these are good enough for their relative prices"
The winner was better than some of the horses in the race, and he appeared to just happen to get great positioning and a dream collapse. He might have been just on the front of the wave, i've yet to re-watch. There were about 4 tosses and 6 non-tosses. Nobody was really a good price. Race results aren't always like a teacher's edition where you can check the answers and generate the correct way to play it. Sometimes pass is correct.
Good day for the exotic forcers who boxed all 6, or the Better Talk Now fans or those born 7/49 etc...