[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2607


"A runner on first with no one out is worth .9116 runs. A successful steal of second base with no one out would bump that to 1.1811 runs, a gain of .2695 expected runs. If that runner is caught, however, the expectation--now with one out and no one on base--drops to .2783, a loss of .6333 expected runs. That loss is about 2.3 times the gain.

Not all steals come with a runner on first and no one out, of course, and there's a lot of math that goes into the 75% conclusion. Michael Wolverton covers the concept in this excellent piece. The main point is that in considering stealing bases, you have to consider both the benefit and the cost. In all but the most specific situations, outs are more valuable than bases, which is why the break-even point for successful base-stealing is so high. "

All of that would be fine if the chances of successfully stealing a base were 50/50. Sure, if the guy is only 50/50, you don't want him running wild on the bases. But when your success rate is 75%, and usually up around 85% for the best base stealers, that throws those expected run numbers out of the window. If the chances of getting an out and a base are even (as with a 50% base stealer or in the case of sacrifice bunts), then it's not worth it. When the chances of getting that same base without giving up an out is 80%, I think it's worth it. The numbers giving expected runs are based on all base runners being equal. They aren't.