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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Have you looked at the PPs for this race? I don't buy that the Colonial Turf Cup was much tougher than an allowance against older horses at Delaware. Nicanor will be 8/5 and should be 5/2.
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FYI, that allowance race at Delaware was a complete joke.
The 2nd place finisher, White Holiday, came back to finish a well-beaten eighth in a N1X at Monmouth on July 4. He was 1-14 prior to finishing 2nd to Nicanor.
The 3rd place finisher, Stevil, came back to finish a well-beaten third in a N1X at Belmont on his preferred surface. He was 1-15 prior to finishing 3rd to Nicanor.
The 4th place finisher, Rabbit Tracks, has not run back but has only a win against MSW company at Fair Grounds in six turf tries.
The 5th place finisher, Tatnall Street, set a slow pace in a 35k N2L claimer at Belmont on Sunday before fading to last.
The 6th place finisher, No Mesa With Me, has not run back and had been a relatively decent animal on dirt prior to the failed turf try at the hands of Nicanor.
The 7th place finisher, He's Solid Gold, has been pummeled in a N1X at Delaware and an optional claimer at Philly, both on the dirt, since losing to Nicanor. He is now 1-12 and 0-4 on turf.
The 8th place finisher, Blood Moon, was eased in a 7.5k N3L claimer at Penn National in his next start.
I think it's safe to say that the Colonial Turf Cup was vastly superior to the allowance race Nicanor exits. In terms of him beating older horses, that's exactly what Lime Rickey did two back at Belmont against a much tougher field.
I think Nicanor is a terrible bet at anything less than 8-1 and given it's a 1000% certainty he'll be less than 8-1 he'll completely beat me.
NT