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Originally Posted by Linny
Comparing one race a year (the Derby) with a five year pattern is moot. Any one trainer can win any one race, as long as he's in it.
Yes, aberrations can and do happen (Mott winning a bunch of baby races, Pletcher losing a bunch of baby races) but the entire idea of what we do is to use statistics about the past to project what will happen in the future. There was a time when Zito firsters were poison but theings have changed, as they will. Yes, a few little known guys will win at Saratoga and a few bombs will come in, but year after year (over about a 5 year period) the laws of averages work.
The money is to be made in the "shift periods." I admit I was slow to acknowledge that Mott was winning baby races 2 yrs ago. I kept thinking "this is an aberration, the next one won't win" and I was wrong. I should have seen the shift (even if it wasfor a short time) and bet while the prices were still good. Instead my money went to boosting Mott's prices.
When Zito started winning with babies a few seasons ago I did hop onto it. Birdstone and El Prado Rob were (I think) both winners that year and I had both.
Of course it's who have the horses but pattern prevail. All the Speighstown/Carson City type early seaon breeding won't get you anyplace if you don't know how to use it. Let's face it, generally the better horses from sales etc end up with Todd, Kieran, Steve Asmussen and a few others. They get the best horses for early success and they win alot. Over the course of years, the lower priced sons and daughters of those elite 2yo sires that end up in second tier barns simply don't win as much as the higher end ones that go to top level barns.
As far as Kenneally is concerned, sure he might have a big season, but so might any one. Jeff Odintz or Joe Parker might win a bunch, but their stats don't point in that direction.
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i would rather take a shot with betting a trainer that will not get overbet/be the chalk in almost every race , how many 2 yr old horses that any of the 3 guys you mentioned are going to pay $10+ dollars to win , probably very few
when the word gets around that todd or kiran or Assmussen has a runner they get bet heavily in full fields and i just let them go at those short prices and pass