If your top 2 choices hit 50% of the time you would on average win 1 out of every 64 Pick 6's you play with a 2X2X2X2X2X2 ticket. That ticket would cost you $128. So you would just need to have the Pick 6 payout average $8,192 every time you hit it to break even. Maybe that is a realistic average payout but it seems low to me. It seems highly unlikely to me that anyone is hitting at 50% on their top 2 choices.
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