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Originally Posted by Derby73
Cowgirl,
I am a novice compared to virtually everyone on this site, but I really focus on the Triple Crown races and combine history with PPs and other DRF information (which my posts on derbytrail.com show). I got in the lead in the Triple Crown Contest because history told me that the winner of the Derby would finish in the money in the Preakness, and one other Derby runner would finish in the money. I liked Rachel Alexandra and chose Musket Man with MTB and I hit that Tri. For the record, I thought MTB was a fluke in the Derby, but history made me bet in otherwise.
Based on recent history for the Belmont, I thought, 1) MTB won't win, but barring injury, he should be in the running and 2) at least 2 of the top 3 horses would have run in the Derby. I selected Charitable Man and MTB and decided that among Dunkirk, Flying Private, Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff, that I should go with Mr. Hot Stuff and Flying Private. Oh well; some times the magic works and some times it doesn't.
It was all fun nevertheless.
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Sounds like you had a great theory. I too, (like some) was'nt so sure of MTB chances and one reason I picked Summer Bird was because of the way he ran in the Arkansas Derby. I hoped for a closer not knowing at the time that the track on Belmont Day seemed to be favoring speed. I was hoping on my bets that MTB would run at least 2nd because I would of had a nice super
Like you say... Sometimes it works and sometimes it does'nt.
